{"id":630,"date":"2020-05-14T02:38:11","date_gmt":"2020-05-14T02:38:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/alouatan.net\/?p=630"},"modified":"2020-05-14T05:03:03","modified_gmt":"2020-05-14T05:03:03","slug":"une-etude-sur-la-propagation-et-la-prediction-du-coronavirus-covid-19-au-maroc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alouatan.net\/?p=630","title":{"rendered":"une \u00e9tude sur la propagation et la pr\u00e9diction du coronavirus Covid-19 au Maroc"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Dr.Abdeljabar RAFIKI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Une \u00e9tude sur la propagation et la pr\u00e9diction<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

du coronavirus Covid-19 au Maroc<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Abdeljabar RAFIKI, Docteur et professeur \u00e0 la facult\u00e9 des sciences Juridiques Economises et Sociales de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 Moulay Ismail effectu\u00e9 une \u00e9tude sur la propagation et la pr\u00e9diction du coronavirus Covid-19 au Maroc, en voici son r\u00e9sum\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

La caract\u00e9ristique biologique de l\u2019agent pathog\u00e8ne et les donn\u00e9es de l\u2019environnement constituent un processus essentiel dans le mode de transmission de virus et joue un r\u00f4le crucial dans le choix des mod\u00e8les \u00e9pid\u00e9miologiques parmi la classe des mod\u00e8les disponibles. Cet article vise \u00e0 mod\u00e9liser la propagation de Coronavirus Covid-19 au Maroc dans la perspective de pr\u00e9dire son jour de pic et son arr\u00eat d\u00e9finitif. A travers des analyses des courbes \u00e9pid\u00e9miques, des simulations du jeu de donn\u00e9es de la sant\u00e9 publique par le mod\u00e8le math\u00e9matique S.I.R, et le mod\u00e8le statistique de la fonction logistique nous sommes arriv\u00e9s \u00e0 des conclusions int\u00e9ressantes. D\u2019abord, le confinement pr\u00e9coce a r\u00e9duit progressivement le taux de reproduction de base actuellement jusqu\u2019\u00e0 moins de \u00ab 1 \u00bb. Ensuite, le mode de transmission est de type \u00ab \u00e9pid\u00e9mie \u00e0 propagation \u00bb ceci risque de g\u00e9n\u00e9rer une nouvelle vague. Enfin, les deux d\u00e9marches de mod\u00e9lisation utilis\u00e9es ont montr\u00e9 que le pic \u00e9pid\u00e9mique est atteint entre 20 et 21 avril 2020 et l\u2019arr\u00eat d\u00e9finitif de la crise est pr\u00e9vu \u00e0 la fin de la 1\u00e8re semaine de juin 2020 pour le mod\u00e8le SIR et \u00e0 la fin de la derni\u00e8re semaine du m\u00eame mois avec un effectif autour de 5000 cas confirm\u00e9s. La diff\u00e9rence des r\u00e9sultats des deux mod\u00e8les n\u2019est ni surprenante ni trop significative pour qu\u2019elle soit inqui\u00e9tante, elle est imput\u00e9e aux bases des calculs diff\u00e9rentes et aux hypoth\u00e8ses diff\u00e9rentes des deux mod\u00e8le. La mod\u00e9lisation par S.I.R est plus robuste que celle de la fonction logistique.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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Dr.Abdeljabar RAFIKI Une \u00e9tude sur la propagation et la pr\u00e9diction du coronavirus Covid-19 au Maroc   Abdeljabar RAFIKI, Docteur et professeur \u00e0 la facult\u00e9 des sciences Juridiques Economises et Sociales de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 Moulay Ismail effectu\u00e9 une \u00e9tude sur la propagation et la pr\u00e9diction du coronavirus Covid-19 au Maroc, en voici son r\u00e9sum\u00e9\u00a0 La caract\u00e9ristique biologique …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":631,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[47,49,56,9],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alouatan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/630"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alouatan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alouatan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alouatan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alouatan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=630"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/alouatan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/630\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":636,"href":"https:\/\/alouatan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/630\/revisions\/636"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alouatan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alouatan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alouatan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alouatan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}